BAY ST. LOUIS, Miss. -- Tish Williams is sitting on a ticking time-bomb, and she couldn't be happier.
As executive director of the Hancock County Chamber of Commerce, Williams has been an unrelenting advocate for the business community, pushing and prodding and helping grease the wheels of a devastated economy in just about every way you can imagine. But until now, any business she approached, any deal she proposed, crashed into the one question on everyone's mind: How many people are living in the county and its two incorporated cities, Bay St. Louis and Waveland?
Williams used to tap-dance around the question, but no longer. A new survey commissioned by the Chamber shows that the population of Bay St. Louis and Waveland are at 76 percent of their pre-Katrina levels.
"And I feel confident that those are conservative numbers," says David Russell, the consultant who arrived at the figure by counting all the electrical connections in the area and multiplying by 2.7 persons, a number reflecting the average number of persons per household as determined by the U.S. Census Bureau. He attributes his assuredness to the fact that his survey doesn't count all residents living in an RV park, where all the trailers are hooked to a single, commercial electrical hook-up, or account for those that might be living in a building while working to renovate it, as many migrant laborers are known to do.
The population question is being asked across the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast following a massive exodus triggered by Hurricane Katrina, which displaced more than 750,000 people from their homes, according to federal estimates. Without new Census data the answer has been devilishly hard to come by, though new estimates are finally giving storm-battered communities some idea of how many residents are living within their borders.
Figures have serious implications
Those figures have major implications in shaping the communities as they rise from the rubble. For instance, many businesses will not reopen without assurances that they can attract sufficient numbers of workers and customers.
The rebuilding plans that local governments put in place also will in large part determine which residents will return. For example, a recent study by Brown University predicted that as much as 80 percent of New Orleans' black population may not return to the city if their badly damaged neighborhoods are not rebuilt, as some planners are urging.
For this reason, Williams and other Hancock County business leaders are celebrating Russell's study, since it indicates the population is higher than many locals had estimated, based entirely on anecdotal evidence.
And David Swanson, a professor at the University of Mississippi and director of the Center for Population Studies, says Russell's figures are likely pretty accurate.
"The methodology is fairly common among state demographers," says Swanson, who is close to releasing numbers from his own much more rigorous study, modeled on methods used by the Census Bureau and funded by the National Science Foundation. "It’s not perfect, but nothing is."
Russell makes no hard-and-fast claims about his survey, readily admitting that it's an estimate and not wholly scientific. He also makes clear that his survey wasn't done to chronicle the return of former residents.
"I don’t think that’s relevant right now," he says. "I’ve gone around and around with other demographers and I tell them, I make absolutely no assumptions about that (the return of former residents) and it makes no difference to me. The people here now, I like to refer to them as ‘paying customers.’"
It is the idea of those "paying customers" that puts a fire in Williams' eyes when she talks about the first project the Chamber intends to produce based on the survey.
Going after a grocery
"We're going to put together a marketing plan for a grocery store," she says, noting that the closest thing to a traditional grocery store at the moment is the local Wal-Mart. "Many people have said we'll get the businesses back when the highway bridge is reopened, but who knows when that will be? The population is here now, the transient population is here, and they are all paying customers and we all need choices."
The population estimate for Waveland and Bay St. Louis are especially impressive considering the extent of the devastation that Katrina wrought on the towns and the county, where up to 80 percent of all housing was destroyed, according to Swanson.
But that figure alone does not guarantee that the area can rebuild a thriving economy, he says.
"It’s a chicken-and-egg issue," Swanson says. "(Residents) will come if there are jobs, but if there are no jobs then people won’t come. When you talk to the business owners, they are all looking for people. But the people there are trying to rebuild and not inclined to work for someone else.
"However you get it started, you need something to prime the pump, besides debris removal, to get the economy going. And then you have to have a place for people to live if they are going to be here working."
Demographers do have some road maps to consult as an indication of what might happen in southern Mississippi. Hurricane-wracked Florida is one such bellwether, says Ronald Cossman, a social science researcher at Mississippi State University.
"People aren't really fleeing the beaches" in Florida, even in the aftermath of devastating storms like Hurricane Andrew, he says.
But he is concerned about how the rebuilding efforts might change the fabric of a region that was just starting to see a healthy influx of newcomers, seduced by the low prices and the charm and hospitality that is woven into the culture of the area.
"Every time we have a rebuilding after a disaster, it typically prices the lower-income workers out of the marketplace," Cossman says. "It’s true the cities come back stronger; they also come back more expensive."
Need for low-income housing
As the Gulf Coast comes back from ruin, the casino industry, which was the major employer before Katrina, will need service industry workers, including dishwashers, landscapers and maids, Cossman said. These low-income workers need affordable housing close to their jobs and he's afraid that rebuilding efforts will push these people inland.
"No city is going to go back and want to rebuild some sort of quaint and inexpensive neighborhood," he says. "They want to come in with grand, new ideas, and that’s not necessarily bad but you must leave a place for the working poor."
In addition to low-income workers who lived in the area before the storm, that could determine whether construction workers and other laborers, many of them migrant Hispanics currently making due in sometimes harsh and unsafe conditions, remain in the area, Cossman says. If the jobs last two or three years, migrant workers who came for the quick dollar might decide to stay, sending for their families, "and make these places their community," he says.
Another factor that will play a big role in determining how many pre-storm residents return to rebuild is cultural heritage. Cossman notes that the region impacted by Katrina has a high percentage of native-born resisdents, with Louisiana having 82 percent native-born residents and Mississippi sitting at 74 percent native-born.
"If you’re native-born you’re much more likely to stick around because of your social and family network," he says. "You’re going to want to come back if you can if you have a social network. We have a lot of people with deep roots to the region."
Loan program leaves lives in limbo
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Bay St. Louis will someday be a community of artists, retirees, young people, and dynamic new enterprises, but for now it is mostly rubble. I've spent almost two months in the gulf volunteering, and am tremendously impressed by the strength and will of those who live there to remake their lives. It will be a very long road, but people like Tish Williams and David Russell will make sure the rebuilding happens. Volunteers who want to work in the area can find information at www.baystlouis.us.
Richard Smith, Damascus, VA (Sent Feb 26, 2006 8:36:38 PM)
I just hope that people who are paying mortgages on piles of rubble and don't have the money to rebuild will get some help to make their insurance companies pay up. And I hope that no one's property will be taken by immenent domain, just so the area will have a tax base again. Building income-producing businesses in residential areas, and more expensive homes that many people can not afford may sound like a good way for the area to rise from the ruin, but I only hope that the cities remember that it is the people who make the Coast what it is. Help the residents stay home on the Coast.
Jane, Southern Mississippi (Sent Feb 26, 2006 10:37:17 PM)
I was born in New Orleans, but lived in Bay St Louis, Waveland and Diamondhead for almost 20 years before moving to Australia. The Gulf Coast of Ms has always been one of the most beautiful places in the US, and with all the love, strength and will of the people in these areas, it will be again. It breaks my heart to know that everything I grew up with is gone, but it is still there hiding under the rubble, and thanks to people like these, it will be rebuilt. God Bless You All
Evalyn, Sydney, Australia (Sent Feb 27, 2006 2:52:07 AM)
I hope that the area can rebuild, but not at taxpayer expense. By providing taxpayer subsidized flood insurance, we are encouraging people to build in places where they could not afford to otherwise. In the US, you may live where you want, just don't ask me to help pay for it.
Gary, Mahomet, Illinois (Sent Feb 27, 2006 11:41:58 AM)
We may have moved away for awhile, while our home is being re-built but we will be back. We have lived to see the worst that Mother Nature can dish out, now it's time to move back and move on. Our economy is effected by the loss of residence, but it will once again grow to a flurished community and place to visit.
We are going to come back better, stronger and complete. Great job Tish you keep up the great job and watch all of your hard work blossom like our towns will. Keep it up, keep the networking and constant stive to bring our community back. God Bless you and your staff.
Steve & Schonda Kinney, Waveland, MS (Sent Feb 27, 2006 11:51:46 AM)
I for one can't wait to come home. We are one of the older folks who had to get out for awhile but we keep our prayers and thoughts on those who are staying there to rebuild. We hope to be home soon. Keep up the good work !!!
Linda V now in Tampa, FL (Sent Feb 27, 2006 12:10:40 PM)
Gary from Illinois writes:
I hope that the area can rebuild, but not at taxpayer expense. By providing taxpayer subsidized flood insurance, we are encouraging people to build in places where they could not afford to otherwise. In the US, you may live where you want, just don't ask me to help pay for it.
This attitude bugs me because the writer acts as if
though I have my hands in his wallet. Please. We are
one country, and you need the Gulf Coast more than
you think. Remember that next time you fill up your
gas tank. Also I pay taxes as well, and if the
Wabash River should flood maybe I should complain
about those in Illinois living in a flood zone with my
money.
But I won't, because we are all Americans.
Also, if the US Govt. were indeed concerned about
damage from flood, they wouldn't have built so many
government laboratories and installation in the area.
From an extreme point of view, you can say that the
government is putting people in harm's way.
M., Bay Saint Louis MS (Sent Feb 27, 2006 3:29:16 PM)
To Gary - You obviously were not in the flooded areas of Illinois that were bailed out by the government after the Mississippi River flooded in the 90's.
Herb, Green Bay, WI (Sent Feb 27, 2006 5:34:50 PM)
Gary, i live where my heart is ....don't you?
andy,ms (Sent Feb 27, 2006 9:36:26 PM)
Although I'm happy to see MS and NO getting attention and help for the damage and pain incurred from Hurricane Katrina, I am extremely disappointed that the media has completely ingnored Hurricane Rita and its victims. It seems that as soon as it was evident that Houston was spared the wrath of Rita, that the news media went right back to New Orleans. They did not stick around to realize that SW Louisiana was devastated. Our coastal communities were washed away also. Lake Charles, 35 mile inland also suffered significant damage. But we are not whining, we are rebuilding!
Howser (Sent Feb 27, 2006 10:00:40 PM)
i don't see why you bother trying to come back bigger and better than before. you're just going to get washed away again.
matt, CA (Sent Feb 28, 2006 10:53:43 AM)
Matt from CA sez:
i don't see why you bother trying to come back bigger and better than before. you're just going to get washed away again.
Why do you bother rebuilding in California if you're
just going to have to do it again after the next
quake?
M., Bay Saint Louis MS (Sent Feb 28, 2006 12:15:38 PM)
Matt,
Isn't there a fault line in CA? Don't you guys have mud slides and floods? So why are YOU still there? Every state has to deal with it's own kind of natural disasters, but as Americans, we all help each other and try to move on. People thought we were crazy to stay in our coastal area of North Carolina after we kept getting hit by Hurricanes in the 90's, but we stayed and we will stay as long as mother nature allows us to stay. We just know to keep an eye on the weather and treasure every day that we have while living in our own paradise. I hope to see the Gulf Coast rebound and prosper once again.
Kathy, Carolina Beach ,NC (Sent Feb 28, 2006 1:02:46 PM)
Hey Matt,
Why do the people in CA continue to build close to the ocean when the cliffs are washing away? And earthquakes and wildfires destroy homes every year?
I was in MS for 3 1/2 months after Katrina helping clean up. Yes, there will be adjustments in building codes and construction techniques in reaction to the damage done by the storms (Rita flooded some of the areas hit by Katrina - talk about insult to injury) just like CA has codes to deal with earthquakes. We humans are pretty resourceful and resilient if not always sensible about where we want our houses.
Kathy, Miami, FL (Sent Feb 28, 2006 1:44:41 PM)
Here we go AGAIN! Why are you building back etc, etc. Have you got a better suggestion, do you have a job, house, family and friends ready and waiting for me?! You live where you do and I live where I do, end of subject. Next time I hear that you are having a flood, earthquake, tornado or big fire then I am going to wonder - why do you continue to stay where you are? Some people may make these comments about rebuilding, each person has a free choice (and then some don't). But please take notice of the situation of the animals that can't do anything but wait for a person to help them. PLEASE check out the link animalrescuefront.net and at least do what you can to help them, send a message to the mayors of Waveland and Bay St. Louis. This is a small thing to ask of anyone.
layne, long beach, ms (Sent Feb 28, 2006 2:18:26 PM)
NEVER GIVE UP!
IF THERE IS A WILL, THERE IS A WAY.
I.B. TAMPA, FL (Sent Feb 28, 2006 3:37:24 PM)
My heart goes out to all of those on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I have been to Waveland 3 times over the last 3 months. If you have not seen with your own eyes you can't imagine the mess down there.Good Luck to all of those rebuilding.
G Mo (Sent Feb 28, 2006 4:15:39 PM)
Hey, Matt, from CA...how are those earthquakes, mudslides, rockslides and wild fires.?????? Why bother putting out those fires? It's only going to burn again next year when the winds kick up!!!!!
peggy, fla. (Sent Feb 28, 2006 4:56:37 PM)
to Matt,
That's an ignorant attitude coming from someone who lives in California...known for fault lines and mudslides. Everywhere in the country has some sort of natural disaster to contend with. This is ours.
Teresa C, Biloxi, MS (Sent Feb 28, 2006 4:58:02 PM)
My family, friends and a church teen Sunday School class have made several trips (varying from 1 to 7) to the Bay St. Louis area (my sisters home). Originally, I was so depressed because no matter how hard the volunteers worked, there was so much more to do. Looking back however, we have helped restore one doctor's office (Sydney Chevas, one complete home and worked on 4 additional homes, two schools and one church. Not bad for one family of volunteers. I would challenge all to continue the work through volunteering. Our seventh trip is in March.
HiGuy, Stockbridge, GA (Sent Feb 28, 2006 5:07:12 PM)
To Matt in CA:
Don't you have earthquakes and forest fires in CA? Of course you'd rebuild. I'm with Andy.
Frances S. Orange Beach, AL (Sent Feb 28, 2006 5:13:00 PM)
I moved to Gulfport Ms. three days after Camille hit, it was very very moving, but Katrina is the big Queen here, she wins, I lived in Biloxi in 1998 and 1999, I told all the people their they had better leave another great storm was coming and it would wipe you out. I'm sorry to say my preditin was right.
Beate Florence,Ms. (Sent Feb 28, 2006 5:32:14 PM)
I spent 4 days working in Bay St. Louis and Biloxi Mississippi this past fall with the Church of Christ in Picayune. I absolutely couldnt believe the devastation when I saw it. It was like driving through a movie set from 'War of the Worlds.' My plan is to go back this summer and work for at least a week, trying to help people rebuild their homes, business, and most importantly their lives. There is a great need for volunteers and there is some great work being done. I think its time for the government to stop arguing about whose fault it was, and start finding ways they can help. Just because they are our government leaders, doesnt mean they cant roll up their sleeves and go help their fellow citizens in need. God Bless America, and God Bless all of the victims of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Callie, Midland, TX (Sent Feb 28, 2006 5:47:40 PM)
Tish, Good job. I'll be back as soon as my land is cleared in Waveland. And to Gary from Illinois, you need to pray that an act of God doesn't destroy your life.
Pat Gorell, Waveland, Ms (Sent Feb 28, 2006 6:05:31 PM)
Geeeeeze Mat, It is home....the spirit of love and heart and survival. Man is an odd creature, for some odd reason accomplishment creates peace and satisfaction. Have you never felt these emotions? I'll keep you in my prayers.
Debbie South Pembroke, NC (Sent Feb 28, 2006 6:13:36 PM)
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