BAY ST. LOUIS, Miss. -- Tish Williams is sitting on a ticking time-bomb, and she couldn't be happier.
As executive director of the Hancock County Chamber of Commerce, Williams has been an unrelenting advocate for the business community, pushing and prodding and helping grease the wheels of a devastated economy in just about every way you can imagine. But until now, any business she approached, any deal she proposed, crashed into the one question on everyone's mind: How many people are living in the county and its two incorporated cities, Bay St. Louis and Waveland?
Williams used to tap-dance around the question, but no longer. A new survey commissioned by the Chamber shows that the population of Bay St. Louis and Waveland are at 76 percent of their pre-Katrina levels.
"And I feel confident that those are conservative numbers," says David Russell, the consultant who arrived at the figure by counting all the electrical connections in the area and multiplying by 2.7 persons, a number reflecting the average number of persons per household as determined by the U.S. Census Bureau. He attributes his assuredness to the fact that his survey doesn't count all residents living in an RV park, where all the trailers are hooked to a single, commercial electrical hook-up, or account for those that might be living in a building while working to renovate it, as many migrant laborers are known to do.
The population question is being asked across the hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast following a massive exodus triggered by Hurricane Katrina, which displaced more than 750,000 people from their homes, according to federal estimates. Without new Census data the answer has been devilishly hard to come by, though new estimates are finally giving storm-battered communities some idea of how many residents are living within their borders.
Figures have serious implications
Those figures have major implications in shaping the communities as they rise from the rubble. For instance, many businesses will not reopen without assurances that they can attract sufficient numbers of workers and customers.
The rebuilding plans that local governments put in place also will in large part determine which residents will return. For example, a recent study by Brown University predicted that as much as 80 percent of New Orleans' black population may not return to the city if their badly damaged neighborhoods are not rebuilt, as some planners are urging.
For this reason, Williams and other Hancock County business leaders are celebrating Russell's study, since it indicates the population is higher than many locals had estimated, based entirely on anecdotal evidence.
And David Swanson, a professor at the University of Mississippi and director of the Center for Population Studies, says Russell's figures are likely pretty accurate.
"The methodology is fairly common among state demographers," says Swanson, who is close to releasing numbers from his own much more rigorous study, modeled on methods used by the Census Bureau and funded by the National Science Foundation. "It’s not perfect, but nothing is."
Russell makes no hard-and-fast claims about his survey, readily admitting that it's an estimate and not wholly scientific. He also makes clear that his survey wasn't done to chronicle the return of former residents.
"I don’t think that’s relevant right now," he says. "I’ve gone around and around with other demographers and I tell them, I make absolutely no assumptions about that (the return of former residents) and it makes no difference to me. The people here now, I like to refer to them as ‘paying customers.’"
It is the idea of those "paying customers" that puts a fire in Williams' eyes when she talks about the first project the Chamber intends to produce based on the survey.
Going after a grocery
"We're going to put together a marketing plan for a grocery store," she says, noting that the closest thing to a traditional grocery store at the moment is the local Wal-Mart. "Many people have said we'll get the businesses back when the highway bridge is reopened, but who knows when that will be? The population is here now, the transient population is here, and they are all paying customers and we all need choices."
The population estimate for Waveland and Bay St. Louis are especially impressive considering the extent of the devastation that Katrina wrought on the towns and the county, where up to 80 percent of all housing was destroyed, according to Swanson.
But that figure alone does not guarantee that the area can rebuild a thriving economy, he says.
"It’s a chicken-and-egg issue," Swanson says. "(Residents) will come if there are jobs, but if there are no jobs then people won’t come. When you talk to the business owners, they are all looking for people. But the people there are trying to rebuild and not inclined to work for someone else.
"However you get it started, you need something to prime the pump, besides debris removal, to get the economy going. And then you have to have a place for people to live if they are going to be here working."
Demographers do have some road maps to consult as an indication of what might happen in southern Mississippi. Hurricane-wracked Florida is one such bellwether, says Ronald Cossman, a social science researcher at Mississippi State University.
"People aren't really fleeing the beaches" in Florida, even in the aftermath of devastating storms like Hurricane Andrew, he says.
But he is concerned about how the rebuilding efforts might change the fabric of a region that was just starting to see a healthy influx of newcomers, seduced by the low prices and the charm and hospitality that is woven into the culture of the area.
"Every time we have a rebuilding after a disaster, it typically prices the lower-income workers out of the marketplace," Cossman says. "It’s true the cities come back stronger; they also come back more expensive."
Need for low-income housing
As the Gulf Coast comes back from ruin, the casino industry, which was the major employer before Katrina, will need service industry workers, including dishwashers, landscapers and maids, Cossman said. These low-income workers need affordable housing close to their jobs and he's afraid that rebuilding efforts will push these people inland.
"No city is going to go back and want to rebuild some sort of quaint and inexpensive neighborhood," he says. "They want to come in with grand, new ideas, and that’s not necessarily bad but you must leave a place for the working poor."
In addition to low-income workers who lived in the area before the storm, that could determine whether construction workers and other laborers, many of them migrant Hispanics currently making due in sometimes harsh and unsafe conditions, remain in the area, Cossman says. If the jobs last two or three years, migrant workers who came for the quick dollar might decide to stay, sending for their families, "and make these places their community," he says.
Another factor that will play a big role in determining how many pre-storm residents return to rebuild is cultural heritage. Cossman notes that the region impacted by Katrina has a high percentage of native-born resisdents, with Louisiana having 82 percent native-born residents and Mississippi sitting at 74 percent native-born.
"If you’re native-born you’re much more likely to stick around because of your social and family network," he says. "You’re going to want to come back if you can if you have a social network. We have a lot of people with deep roots to the region."
Loan program leaves lives in limbo
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Gary.....America was built with the settlers and colonists helping each other through their hard times. THAT is what America is. We have to do that. Your turn may come. I just came back from D'Iberville, MS and saw the gigantic need there...6 months after Katrina. I'm dismayed that New Orleans has/is getting all the publicity. MS. had 150 mph winds with waves 40 ft. high. Wrap your mind around that. Even today I can't. Let's give through taxpayers' funding. They all still need tremendously much more!!! Actually, Gary, I am ashamed of you as well as sad for your way of feeling.
Lois Beckwith, Manchester, CT. (Sent Feb 28, 2006 6:20:32 PM)
We choose to live where we want. In the words of a wise person, "at least we know the hurricane is coming". In Katrina's case we KNEW on Friday August 26 at 4PM when the NHC forecast was updated that Katrina had made a bee line for the Louisiana & Mississippi Gulf Coast. That was 60 hours before the storm arrived.
How would earthquake, tornado etc victims like to have a 60 hour warning?
Bottom line, I will take a hurricane any day over the other freak events of mother nature.
StevenD.
Gulfport Mississippi.
Survivor of Betsy, Camile, Frederick, Elaina, Georges and KATRINA.
StevenD Gulfport MS (Sent Feb 28, 2006 6:47:29 PM)
sorry....i've got to stand with a lot of the others....when mother nature comes calling...and she will....will you leave your home or rebuild?....HOME is where the Heart is Dangitt!!....i'll stand my ground....dis my place!!!!
andy,ms (Sent Feb 28, 2006 9:50:32 PM)
I have never been to Bay St Louis, Waveland nor do I know anyone from there. However, in response to some of the comments that have been left, I am appauled. Yes each state has it's own natural disaster, but more importantly, each life has it's own disaster. Matt and Gary, I feel sorry for you, you must have never learned to love and then had to suffer from the lost of that love. My final comment is for the people of the devastated areas, may God bless and keep you safe in the future, meanwhile it's time to rebuild your love. GO FOR IT!
Mark Norris, Victorville, Ca (Sent Feb 28, 2006 10:00:20 PM)
I'm a Katrina survivor from Gulfport and moved away from all of my family for job purposes. Just remember one thing South Mississipians that our famalies rebuilt better and stronger after Camille.
Now it's our turn to rebuild better and stronger. So everyone keep the hope alive cuz I'm coming home in August to join my family in the rebuilding of the Beautiful Mississippi Gulf Coast.... RR..
Roy R. Gulfport MS. (Sent Feb 28, 2006 11:00:15 PM)
To Howser -
Sorry to hear about your trials during Rita. But I
tell you, no one here is whining either. They are
rebuilding. Please find someone to publicize your
Rita-related plight. You certainly deserve it.
M. Bay Saint Louis (Sent Feb 28, 2006 11:06:49 PM)
I Feb, I went on a missions trip to Waveland MS the devistion was still really bad. A couple years ago here in Missouri we had a tarnado that whipped out 3 of our town But the people anot whinning they are pulling together to rebuild. Disaster can hit anyone in this world or any place. America is the country of freedom and oppertunity. People need to quit fighting
and pull together and help ther fellow man I don't care if the tax payer are going have help rebuild. God
tell love one other as you would yourself. If a disaster happen to me I would stay at my place i would stay ianywhere in this world disature can happen
God controlls MOTHER NATURE MY PRAYER ARE WITH YOU ALL
ON THE GULF .And everyone needs to pulls together and help one another my prayers are with all of you from Fl.MS,NO to TSand everyon that was hit my the storm keep beleiver keep on going and I hope to return to mississippi new orleans to se the beauty of these great town.
in a tent and rebuild my home Your home is where you raise your family where your heart is and your soul. People need to Praise GOD everyday for what they
do have, because he can take it away in an istant.
GOD TELL USE TO LOVE ONE ANOTHER AND LOVE YOURSELF.
are saying in our Church is 1st love God 2nd love people 3rd love life. I just think that everyone need
to step up to the plate and help I not afraid to do it
Debbie Greene,Seymour missouri (Sent Mar 1, 2006 5:02:09 AM)
God Bless the victims, God Bless the volunteers, God Bless our Democratic society where help is always on the way. Whether it is through volunteer monies or through tax relief with my dollars...God Bless the U.S.A. Love your neighbor as yourself...words of wisdom to live by.
neighbors helping neighbors (Sent Mar 1, 2006 9:02:50 AM)
hey... hurricane...lets move....toronado lets move...man forrist fire ...move....mudslide...oh sh**...move once again....flood ...move ....then you go to anouther country ...to get away from it... and BANG tsumami or earthquake....where ya gonna run?...you run HOME dangitt!!!
andy,booneville ms. (Sent Mar 1, 2006 10:56:19 AM)
I had my first look at the Mississippi Gulf Coast "Katrina Struck" area this past weekend and I wasn't ready to see the destruction that surrounded me SIX MONTHS LATER!! Such a beautiful coast has been destroyed and I don't know how others can have no sympathy for those who were and still are affected. I would like to think that if they were to see the area in person, they would have a change of heart; all the rubble, trash, uprooted trees, smashed vehicles, etc. All of you coastal residents have my sympathy and support for rebuilding your homes; I saw FEMA trailers decorated for Mardi Gra and it brought tears to my eyes to see such human spirit in such a great time of need. God bless and keep each and every one of you! I'll be spreading the word in Indiana that help is STILL much needed.
Stacey, Indianapolis (Sent Mar 1, 2006 11:12:43 AM)
My heart went out to all the people who lost all, butI do believe some of them could have done more for themselves. the USA did not send the storm. it was an act of nature. I know home is important, but none of the areas that are below sea level should be built with tax money.There should be help but they need to help themselves. I heard they wanted new stuff, but
goodWill has good buyes on many things. If i was left homeless, i have no idea what I would do, but If i was physically able you better believe I would be helping my self and my own family. As for homes, why not live in the trailers until they can do better. There are people in the world that would give anything to have just a roof and 4 walls.
Helen Kiger (Sent Mar 1, 2006 9:37:45 PM)
Mark - thank you so much for the lovely words - please make it a point to come visit us in the Bay after we are back on our feet - it is people like you who we WANT here - people with attitudes like Matt & Gary are exactly the people we DON'T want here, so hopefully they will keep their desire to stay away - I have been here through it all and the great people who have come to help us FAR outweigh people like these two - the funny thing is that all these great people are coming to help and falling in love with us and our town & they are seeing us at our worst!!!
Stacey - everyone who comes says the same thing - it's unbelievable - still! I have had several military personnel tell me it's worse than anything they have ever seen, including Iraq, tsunami area, etc. It's literally close to 100 miles of total devastation! Don't worry about those idiots with no sympathy and compassion; we are getting all we need from people like you and the majority on this website. They will have to answer to a much higher power than us one day for their actions and words - I guarantee you, the ones blowing their mouths like Gary ("don't rebuild at taxpayer's expense" - what the hell does he think all of us are down here - believe me, I probably pay MORE in taxes than he does - wouldn't doubt it if he's unemployed and I'm paying his way!) and Matt (shallow minded and very immature statement-let's hope it's just some kid fooling around on this website), have no clue what it's really like down here - believe me people, TV and pictures do not do it justice! By the way, we not only decorated for Mardi Gras, we had our parades and we also had a FEMA trailer decorating contest in town this past Christmas - we still have our spirit, hope, faith and most important, our humor! Thanks to all those who are wishing us well and keeping us in your prayers - and to those of you who are NOT wishing us well, I will keep you in MY prayers!
T. Ryan (Sent Mar 1, 2006 9:54:40 PM)
It is sad when someone has never felt a connection deeper than their possessions or job. Matt and Gary: just because you can't see the things that are bigger than you, don't mean they ain't there. History, family, a way of thinkin' 'bout stuff - your lives must be pretty "two-dimensional" if you don't have a connection to some place or peoples.
Carol A. Cashes (Sent Mar 2, 2006 1:12:33 AM)
I'm from California, and I agree that way up above Matt's attitude and demeanor are rather... ignorant. We do all have our disasters to contend with. I personally am more worried for those of you in the Gulf Coast, however, since it appears that we are in a cycle of increased hurricane activity. I truly hope we can build back enough and strong enough in time to prevent recurring damage this great. Be safe, and obey the evacuation orders!!
Jared, Inland Empire, CA (Sent Mar 2, 2006 1:30:55 AM)
i've not been on any church trips to the coastal area as of yet. how can i help (and my teen son) and/or get in touch with someone to visit and help in some way?? i have childhood memories of staying at the old Confederate Inn.. and swimming with the pet duck in the tiny old pool. ( yes.. it was many years ago) even with the building of the newer more expensive hotels in the 60's and 70's.. i always asked to stay at the Confederate Inn.. the coast was beautiful and will be again! God bless you all
k, jackson ms (Sent Mar 2, 2006 2:07:40 AM)
After reading hubris-filled commentary from those
in other parts of the country who:
1) Question the sanity of those who dare to rebuild
in South Mississippi, despite earthquake faults lurking underneath, tornado vulnerability or the
possibility of rising floodwaters in their own areas;
2) Insist on confusing New Orleans with South Mississippi, and thereby maintain that South
Mississippi is below sea level;
3) Insist that our rebuilding efforts are actively
emptying their wallets as we speak, despite the fact
that we pay taxes as well;
4) Insist that they know all we do is wait for handouts, never mind the vast rebuilding effort
going on with or without anyone's help
I ask those who are running this site to shut it
down, since all it is doing is serving as a
forum for negativity and ignorance from other
parts of the country, and hurting us in the process.
I am also very disappointed in many of the comments
coming from my home state of California. That anyone
living on what is geologically an apple pie crust
can take us to task for living where we live requires
arrogance of the highest order.
You've got something to say? Help first.
R., Bay Saint Louis (Sent Mar 2, 2006 5:35:45 AM)
Dear everyone on the coast. Please know there are many people around the country whom are hoping for a quicker way of helping each and every family.In my opinion I would rather be helping you with my tax money than alot of other things the government decides to use it on. We can only imagine the devastation in each of your lives. God will bless each and everyone of your lives and the loved ones you have all lost, you may not think so as of yet but he will, just believe,and gather strength from him. Dont give up!!! This is your homeland and fight, fight, fight for it!! God bless and keep you all.
Dawn D.F. (Sent Mar 2, 2006 8:07:37 AM)
Helen Kiger,heeer we go again.....Mississippi is not below sea level....and would you want to be in a trailor...if even a small storm hit?...and yes there are Mississippians that would give anything to just have 4 walls and a roof
andy,ms (Sent Mar 2, 2006 8:45:24 AM)
To all in South Mississippi. I was born & raised in Gulfport, MS. I lived there for 27 years (I moved 5 years ago) and my mom is still in residence there. I want to thank all the volunteers who come from far away to help rebuild.........and to all the residents who are staying, thank you and GOD BLESS YOU! My mom has been helped by so many, but she still has a long way to go. Her house wasn't completely destroyed but there have to be some major repairs. I understand she is luckier than most, but her spirit as well as those who don't have anything is what is carrying them through. If you haven't seen hospitality in awhile, take yourself down to South Mississippi where you'll see neighbors helping neighbors. It's such a shame that N.O. is getting the media attention when the entire MS Gulf Coast should be getting it's fair share. I'm not saying that what happened to N.O. isn't awful, but let's not forget South MS. You guys are all in my prayers & thoughts.........keep on keeping on, and I hope to visit my hometown soon! :-)
T. J. Norwich, NY (Sent Mar 2, 2006 9:09:44 AM)
Matt and Gary - People who live in glass houses, etc. All of the hurricane victims of 2005 are in my daily prayers. My grandchildren live in Pass Christian, Ms. Through them I feel the pain.
Maryann, Auburndale, Fl (Sent Mar 2, 2006 11:14:08 AM)
It is ashame how some people think, I feel bad for
Gary , and ll other who feel like him. This is America.
ET, Jackson , TN (Sent Mar 2, 2006 2:25:03 PM)
Was on a Church mission trip to Gulfport 2 weeks ago, - totally amazed and shocked by the destruction and devastation. Drove along Rt. 90 for about 10 miles and saw nothing but total devastation for 3 - 4 blocks inland from the Gulf Coast - everything flattened. I was so humbled and yet proud to be a part of a group of volunteers from so many different parts of the country, New Jersey, Alabama, Montana, Texas, Illinois, Michigan, Minn. and others. All of us getting together to help our fellow human being brothers and sisters in Gulfport. I also initially felt why do they want to rebuild and expose themselves to another catastrophe. Why, - 'cause that's their home. If my home were destroyed by fire, God forbid, would I move away, - no I'd rebuild. A 65 year-old lady whose house we reroofed had tears in her eyes watching as we worked. We finished on Valentines day and she said it was the best and most loving Valentines day she had ever had. We were so sorry we had to leave but encourage everyone who can to go and help.
God bless everyone down there, God bless and be with all the volunteers and God Bless America!!!
John Krueger, Berthoud, Colorado (Sent Mar 2, 2006 2:39:35 PM)
WELL... To all those who have never been in an earthquake, we don't get a big one EVERY year, and they do not destroy entire TOWNS. I'm not hatin, I just can't picture myself living with the uncertainty that maybe this year will be the year that my house gets torn apart and/or washed away by a hurricane. You all that are SO brave and are rebuilding have my utmost respect, cause I sure as heck couldn't do what you guys are doing. When the roots run deep it's MUCH harder to transplant.
Theo, Ventura, CA (Sent Mar 2, 2006 4:01:55 PM)
People may not be leaving the beaches of Florida, but they do have enough intelligence to build "hurricane resistant" high rise structures on areas that have direct exposure to storm surge. The Pass Christian/Bay St. Louis area has been destroyed twice in less than 40 years by two of the most severe hurricanes to hit the US. There must be a learing curve here somewhere folks.
Robert, Gonzales La. (Sent Mar 2, 2006 4:17:41 PM)
To Those Of You Who Have Little Heart For Those People In Ms And In New Orleans = Surrounding Areas. Remember That God Said Love Thy Neighbor As Your Self. I Wonder How Many Of You Who Complain That You Do Not Want You Tax Dollars To Help Rebuild Nor To Volunteer To Help Would Be The First To Appy To The Government For Help If A Diaster Hit You & Your Area. I Am A Bit Old To Volenteer Except For Donations. My Prayers Are With You All Now And Forever.
Robert L. Smith Harrison, Arkansas (Sent Mar 2, 2006 8:35:46 PM)
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